The paradoxical effect of Gardasil: the incidence of cancer increases!

The paradoxical effect of Gardasil: the incidence of cancer increases!

How lucky to have crossed paths with a paradox! Now we finally have some hope of progress! Niels bohr

Thus changes the natural history of the disease: an increase in frequency

It takes a long time to say that preventive action really protects. But the failure of this alleged protection can sometimes be very obvious. To prove that the Titanic were truly unsinkable, decades of navigation would be needed on the world's most dangerous seas. To prove that this was not the case, it took only a few hours ... This demonstration of the "Titanic" is unfortunately reproduced by the Gardasil vaccination.

Proof that vaccination increases the risk of cancer invasive it can be immediate, if the vaccine changes the natural history of cancer and accelerates it. The analysis of the trend of the incidence of invasive cervical cancer published in the official statistics (registers) has been studied in the first and most complete vaccinated countries (Australia, Great Britain, Sweden and Norway). Unfortunately, this is the case with HPV vaccines

Pre vaccination period: incidence steadily decreasing thanks to screening

In all countries with it smear screening, from 1989 to 2007 there was a clear decrease in cases

Great Britain: 13.5 to 9.4% [1]
Australia: 13.5 to 7% [2]
Sweden: 11.6 to 10.2% [3]
Norway: 15.1 to 11% [4]
USA: 10.7 to 6.67% [5]
France: 11 to 7.1%

In the world, on average, between 1989 and 2000 the decline in the incidence of this cancer fell by 2.5% each year, and by 1% between 2000 and 2007. In total, between 1989 and 2007 there was a decrease in the incidence of around 30%.

Vaccination period: trend reversal. Gardasil is canceling the benefits of smear screening and accelerating the incidence of this cancer.

Since the HPV vaccination was implemented, in all the countries that use it most, there has been a trend reversal, with increased incidence.


Australia has been the first country to organize routine vaccinations for girls (April 2007 school curriculum for women aged 12-13, July 2007 recovery program for women aged 14-26 years) and then for the kids (2013). According to the latest publication of theAustralian Institute of Health and Welfare (2018 publication describing detailed rates up to 2014) [6], the standardized incidence in the overall population has not diminished since vaccination : 7/100000 in 2007 against 7,4 in 2014.

This stabilization is the result of two contradictory tendencies which they only appear by examining trends, by age group.

Vaccinated women saw their risk increase:

100% increase for people aged 15-19 (from 0,1 in 2007 to 0,2 in 2014).

113% increase (from 0,7 to 1,5) in groups between the ages of 20 and 24, more than 80% of whom were vaccinated between 13 and 17 years old.

However, since the figures are very small, this increase does not reach statistical significance.

About a third increase for group 25-29 (from 5,9 to 8, p = 0,06) and for 30-34 (from 9,9 to 12,4 c = 0,80 p = 0,01) less vaccinated. These increases are statistically significant

A drama known to one of the best athletes: Sarah Tait

This increased risk of cancer after vaccination was dramatically illustrated by the sad story of Olympic rowing champion Sarah Tait at the 2012 London Olympics. This champion saw her life shattered in full glory: a few years later, vaccinated and died at 33, suffered from an invasive cervical cancer. Of course, we don't know if vaccination was the direct cause of her cancer, but has, statistically, one chance in two that I got cancer from vaccination. Furthermore, we observed that cancer appeared very early in this woman.

In contrast, unvaccinated women continued to benefit from the Pap test results

minus 17% between 55 and 59 years old
minus 13% between 60 and 64
minus 23% between 75 and 79
minus 31% between 80 and 84

We always remember that for this cancer to develop, 30-40 years must pass, and only a very small portion of women has an equally low probability of developing it. The more you get vaccinated, the more your risk of getting sick increases? It looks just like that


In the UK, a national program was introduced in 2008 to offer routine HPV vaccination to 12-13 year olds and offer recovery vaccinations to girls up to 18 years old. The UK national program initially used the bivalent HPV vaccine (Cervarix), but in 2012 it was modified to use the quadrivalent vaccine (Gardasil). HPV vaccination coverage in England has been high, with over 80% of 12-13 year olds receiving full coverage. The recovery cohort was covered to a lesser extent (from 39% to 76%).

After vaccination, the standardized incidence in the overall population increased from 9,4 per 100000 in 2007 to 9,6 in 2015. We observe contrasting trends between different age groups.

I Vaccination promoters predict a decrease of cervical cancer rates in women between the ages of 20 and 24 from 2014, when vaccinated adolescents enter their second decade of life. However, in 2016, national statistics have showed a strong and significant increase of the cervical cancer rate in this age group. Unfortunately, this 2016 information was not made public. They could have served as an alarm.

Aged women between 20 and 25 years old, more than 85% vaccinated, when they were between 14 and 18 years old, they saw increase their cancer risk by 70% in 2 years (from 2,7 in 2012 to 4,6 per 100.000 in 2014 p = 0,0006) and those of aged between 25 and 30 years, (between 18 and 23 years of age at the time of the vaccination campaign) have seen their cancer risk increase by 100% between 2007 and 2015 [7] (from 11 / 100.000 to 22 / 100.000).

Women aged 25 to 34, (less vaccinated, exposed only to some recovery vaccinations), saw their risk increase by 18% (from 17 in 2007 to 20 in 2014).

In Britain, as in Australia, unvaccinated older women have seen their risk decrease:

(-13% for women between 65 and 79 years old and -10% for people over XNUMX), most likely due to the continuation of the smear.


In Sweden, Gardasil has been in use since 2006. The vaccination program was launched in 2010, with vaccination coverage for 12-year-old girls approaching 80%. In 2012-2013, with a recovery program, almost all girls aged 13 to 18 were vaccinated.

In this country, the standardized incidence of cervical cancer in the world population has steadily increased since the vaccination rose from 9,6 per 100000 in 2006 to 9,7 in 2009, 10,3 in 2012 and 11,49 in 2015 [8]. This increase is mainly due to the increase in the incidence of invasive cancers among women aged between 20-24 years whose incidence has doubled (from 1,86 in 2007 to 3,72 in 2015 p <0,001) [9] and in women among 20 and 29 years the incidence invasive cervical cancers increased by 19% (from 6,69 to 8,01).

In reverse, as in Australia and Great Britain, a decrease in the incidence of invasive cancer has been observed in women over 50, a group that was not included in the vaccination schedule. The incidence of invasive cervical cancer decreased between 2007 and 2015 by 6% for women aged 50 to 59 (from 14,24 to 13,34), and 4% for those aged 60 to 69 years (12,63%). at 12,04, 17% for those aged 70 to 79 (from 15,28 to 12,66) and 12% for those over 80 (from 15,6 to 13,68).


The cancer registry shows a increased incidence standardized invasive cervical cancers from 11,7 in 2007 to 12,2 in 2009, 13,2 in 2012 and 14. 9 2015 [10].

This increase is due almost exclusively to young women, which include all women vaccinated, as evidenced by the sharp drop in the average age of onset of cervical cancer from 48 years in 2002-2006 to 45 years in 2012-2016.

Between 2007 and 2015, the incidence of invasive cervical cancer has increased by 8% among women aged 20-29 (from 7,78 to 8,47) [11].

During the same period, one was observed decrease in the incidence of invasive cancer in older women not involved in the vaccination schedule: 11% for women aged 55 to 64 (15,47-13,7), -16% for women aged 65 to 74 (17,7-14,71) and -29% for women aged 75 to 85 years (18,39-13).

Now we see two countries with coverage below these: USA 60% and France 15%. There are differences.


In this country, vaccination coverage is lower than in previous countries (almost 60%).

According to the Cancer Statistics Review 1975-2015 [12], the standardized incidence of invasive cervical cancer remains stable (+0.1) from vaccination.

In the United States, the same discrepancy is observed for age groups, but of a smaller size. Aged women above 50 years of age benefit from a 5% risk reduction (from 10,37 per 100000 in 2007 to 9,87 in 2015), while the younger women, which include vaccinated women, have given a 4% increase in risk (from 5,24 in 2007 to 5,47 in 2015).


The evolution of these countries, with high vaccination coverage, can be compared with the trend observed in metropolitan France, where HPV vaccination coverage is very low (around 15%). France can be considered, for this reason, as a control country. In France [13] the incidence of cervical cancer has steadily decreased from 15 in 1995 to 7,5 in 2007, 6,7 in 2012 and 6 in 2017much lower than in countries with high vaccination coverage.

This decrease in incidence has been accompanied by a decrease in mortality from 5 in 1980 to 1,8 in 2012 and 1,7 in 2017.

It is paradoxical and very worrying that these excellent French results, with a low rate of cervical cancer and a low related mortality, could be jeopardized by an obligation considered in the short term by our policies, for some misinformed pharmacological links and for other large ones. drugs [14].

In all countries that have achieved high HPV vaccination coverage, official cancer registries show a increased incidence of invasive cervical cancers.

For women under the age of 20, the raw number is minimal to reach statistical significance, but similar increases in all the countries studied constitute a strong warning signal.

For women 20-30 the incidence increases after vaccination, and is highly significant (p <0.01or 0.001). In these same countries, in the same period, older women, not vaccinated, saw a decrease in the risk of cervical cancer.

Similarly, in metropolitan France, a country with low vaccination coverage, the incidence of cervical cancer continues to decline at a rate comparable to that of the pre-vaccination period.

These paradoxical results call for a quick review of the recommendations and intense research to explain this catastrophic problem.

Dr. Gerard Delépine

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[1] Cancer Research UK, Cervical Cancer (C53): 1993-2015, European Age-Standardized Incidence Rates per 100,000 Population, Females, UK Accessed 08 [2018].

[2] AIHW [2]. 13. AIHW 2017. Cancer in Australia 2017. Cancer series no. 101. Cat. CAN No. 100. Canberra: AIHW.

[3] NORDCAN, Association of the Nordic Cancer Registries 3.1.2018

[4] Bo T Hansen, Suzanne Campbell, Mari Nygård Long-term incidence of HPVrelated cancers, and cases preventableby HPV vaccination: a registry-based study in Norway BMJ Open 2018; 8: e019005

[5] Table 5.1 Cancer of the Cervix Uteri (Invasive) Trends in SEER Incidence and US Mortality SEER Cancer Statistics Review 1975-2012

[6] Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW) 2017 Australian Cancer Incidence and Mortality (ACIM) books: cervical cancer Canberra: AIHW. <Http://>.

[7] A Castanona, P Sasienia Is the recent increase in cervical cancer in women aged 20-24 years in

England a cause for concern? Preventive Medicine 107 (2018) 21-28

[8] Nationellt Kvalitetsregister für Cervix cancer prevention (NKCx), [in Swedish]

[9] Engholm G, Ferlay J, Christensen N, Hansen HL, Hertzum-Larsen R, Johannesen TB, Kejs AMT, Khan S, Olafsdottir E, Petersen T, Schmidt LKH, Virtanen A and Storm HH: Cancer Incidence, Mortality, Prevalence and Survival in the Nordic Countries, Version 8.1 (28.06.2018). Association of the Nordic Cancer Registries. Danish Cancer Society. Available from, accessed it 30/09/2018.

[10] Cancer in Norway 2016

[11] Engholm G, Ferlay J, Christensen N, Hansen HL, Hertzum-Larsen R, Johannesen TB, Kejs AMT, Khan S, Olafsdottir E, Petersen T, Schmidt LKH, Virtanen A and Storm HH: Cancer Incidence, Mortality, Prevalence and Survival in the Nordic Countries, Version 8.1 (28.06.2018). Association of the Nordic Cancer Registries. Danish Cancer Society. Available from, accessed is 1/10/2018

[12] SEER 9 National Center for Health Statistics, CDC

[13] Francim, HCL, Public Health France, INCa. Projections of Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Metropolitan France in 2017 - Solid Tumors [Internet]. Saint-Maurice: Public health France [updated 02/01/2018; viewed on the 09/05/2018

[14] Gardasil, alert, imminent risk of mandatory vaccination against HPV unnecessary, and sometimes dangerous, for girls and boys.